New, single household dwelling gross sales declined by 8.6 p.c in March in accordance with knowledge launched at the moment by the Census Bureau.  That looks as if a reasonably substantial shift, however on this case, the overall annual tempo of 763k was proper in keeping with median forecast of 765k.  There are a couple of different silver linings to the “-8.6%” cloud:

  • gross sales proceed to run above pre-covid ranges
  • stock improved to 406k properties (a 5.7 month provide) from 385k beforehand
  • gross sales remained in stable territory regardless of one other report excessive for median costs in addition to the sharpest fee spike because the 80s
  • the overall development stays constructive 

Let’s develop extra on that “inventory is improving” bullet level because it runs counter to most every part being mentioned about stock in the intervening time.  The subject has to do with how the Census Bureau counts stock.  Specifically, properties are counted as “for sale” even when they’re nonetheless underneath development and even when development has not but been began.  The 406k stock determine breaks down as follows:

  • 110k = not began 
  • 259k = underneath development 
  • 36k  = accomplished

While that is fascinating, it is not proof of a conspiracy within the knowledge.  In reality, this report counts properties underneath contract, so completions aren’t technically mandatory with a purpose to rely towards the overall.  


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