For the third or 4th time (relying in your requirements), yields are looking for a ceiling after launching abruptly increased in early March (1.67% to three.20% trough to peak in 2 months). Yesterday’s 3.20% studying from the in a single day session appears pretty excessive in comparison with this morning’s sub 2.97% ranges. What’s up with the massive reversal? First off, it is coated about the identical quantity of floor because the final reversal try on the finish of April.
Additionally, whereas this is able to be a powerful transfer for less than taking 2 days (assuming these positive factors maintain), it might not even undo the earlier 2 days of weak spot. The late April try took yields again to ranges seen 7 days prior. The late March try took yields again 5 days.
While we will not rule out (or verify) that we’re seeing proof of ceiling assist, it is extra possible that merchants are merely getting right into a extra nimble place forward of tomorrow’s high-consequence CPI knowledge. If that have been to return in under expectations, it might definitely add to those ceiling vibes. Either method, the present rally is neither massive sufficient nor has it lasted lengthy sufficient to verify any main shift.