Citing “surprising reasons” in a headline is just a few steps above “one weird trick” on the click-bait scale, however in right now’s case, it is warranted.
We got here into right now anticipating some mixture of the Retail Sales report and the Fed’s assembly minutes to account for rate of interest volatility. As it occurred, neither of these occasions had a lot of an impression on the bond market (bonds decide charges).
Rates nonetheless moved fairly a bit greater as a result of bonds had been reacting to occasions within the in a single day buying and selling hours, effectively earlier than both of right now’s large ticket home occasions. The key perpetrator was a surprisingly scorching inflation report within the UK.
Giving credit score to UK inflation information for US fee motion looks as if so much to ask when, simply final week, we had been explaining why cooler US inflation information didn’t push charges down in any vital means. In different phrases, if decrease inflation within the US would not assist charges, why does greater inflation within the UK damage charges?
This is a good query with a posh reply. One a part of the reply is that markets are extra defensive about inflation coming in greater than anticipated proper now. There is a broad expectation that inflation metrics will proceed calming down in coming months. Last week’s home information agreed. So though it was decrease than anticipated, all it wanted to be was decrease than the earlier month as a way to endorse the bond market’s prevailing buying and selling pattern–at least in relation to buying and selling inflation.
Hotter than anticipated inflation information is a unique story–one that may really have an effect on central banks’ fee hike outlooks. UK information has the most important impact on bonds within the UK, however there may be at all times a sure diploma of spillover/correlation between UK/EU bonds and US bonds within the in a single day hours.
In nuts and bolts phrases, after being nearer to five% two weeks in the past, the common prime tier 30yr fastened quote is as soon as once more nearer to five.5%.